Welcome to the November 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings!s. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.
GOVERNORS
Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R |
---|---|---|---|---|
CA-GOV CO-GOV CT-GOV IL-GOV OR-GOV MD-GOV NM-GOV RI-GOV | ME-GOV MN-GOV NV-GOV | AZ-GOV GA-GOV KS-GOV MI-GOV PA-GOV WI-GOV | NH-GOV MA-GOV | FL-GOV IA-GOV OH-GOV SC-GOV TX-GOV VT-GOV |
SENATE
likely d | lean d | tossup | lean r | likely r |
---|---|---|---|---|
CO-SEN | NV-SEN | AZ-SEN GA-SEN NH-SEN PA-SEN WI-SEN | NC-SEN | FL-SEN IA-SEN OH-SEN MO-SEN |
Likely Murkowski: AK-SEN
Note on house ratings: States will be added to the House rating list on a case by case basis. Intially, I’m just rating at large seats and seats where the range of possible redistricting results is narrow enough to allow a reasonable approximation of a rating. A table of which states have been rated and which states haven’t is below the rating table.
HOUSE
likely d | lean d | tossup | lean r | likely r |
---|---|---|---|---|
CO-7 CT-2 CT-5 IL-6 IL-13 IL-14 IN-1 MN-3 NH-2 OR-4 OR-5 OR-6 TX-28 | CO-8 IL-17 MN-2 NC-2 NV-3 NV-4 | IA-3 ME-2 NH-1 TX-15 VA-2 VA-7 | CO-3 IA-1 NE-2 WI-3 | AK-AL AR-2 CO-4 CO-5 IA-2 MN-1 MN-8 MT-1 NC-4 NC-11 NC-14 NE-1 TX-23 TX-24 VA-1 VA-5 WI-1 WI-6 WI-8 |
Rated States | Unrated States |
AK, AR, CO, CT, DE, HI, ID, IA, IL, IN, MA, ME, MN, MS, MT, NC, NE, NH, NV, ND, OR, RI, SD, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY | AL, AZ, CA, FL, GA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MO, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, TN, WA |